24 January 2012

Super Bowl Oddsmaking Stupidity

Ok this has been annoying me since I first saw this story yesterday so I just have to say something about it or it will drive me nuts.  This is totally unrelated to gaming or MMO's, so if sports ain't your thing, move along and wait for tomorrow's post.  What kind of drugs are they on in Vegas to have the Patriots as favored over the Giants?  Don't get me wrong, I am a huge fan of Tom Brady, and so by extension the Patriots, and will be pulling for them to win this Super Bowl.  But if you asked me to put money on it?  If you asked me who I think will win, not who I want to win?  I don't see who in their right mind could say with a straight face that the Patriots are more likely to win this game than the Giants.  Let's just go through the simple reasons right off the top of my head.

1)  The Giants already beat the Patriots head-to-head this year.

2)  Prior to the AFC Championship game, the Patriots had not even beat ANY team with a winning record this year, and they had to get very lucky to beat the Ravens.

3)  And while it was several years in the past, let's not forget it was these Giants who ended the Patriots hope for the first 19-0 season in NFL history, defeating them in the Super Bowl in 2007. 

And those are just the simple ones.  We could go on about how the Giants are winning tough road playoff games against much better competition while the Patriots beat up a team that didn't deserve to be in the playoffs (The Broncos) and lucked out against the Ravens.  We could talk about the Giants being able to do the one thing that really throws Brady off his game, getting pressure without having to blitz.  We could talk about how Eli Manning and the Giants wide receivers should be able to abuse a Patriots secondary that gave up yards by the bucket this year.  Put it all together and I simply see no logical explanation for the Giants being underdogs here.

But the oddsmakers and the "powers that be" at the NFL and network offices have to be happy with this one.  This was probably the best potential match-up from a "marketing" point of view in the playoffs.  A "Harbaugh Bowl" between the Ravens and 49ers would have been mildly interesting, but this New York/New England, Brady/Manning rivalry is guaranteed to deliver the big bucks.  How much do you think it would bug big brother Peyton if little Eli got a second ring and he likely never will?  While I despise the entire Manning family, I can't help but smile a little at that potential scenario.  But in spite of it all, I will be rooting for Darth Belichick and his golden haired apprentice Lord Brady.  And while the oddsmakers say I'm already picking the favorite, I know better.  This is going to be a tough fight for the Patriots.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Please keep comments on topic and considerate. I reserve the right to moderate stupidity.